A Sensitivity Analysis of a Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Endemic Malaria under Periodic Climatic Conditions

Abstract

We perform sensitivity analysis on a periodic mathematical model of endemic malaria transmission to determine the relative importance and impact of model parameters to disease transmission and prevalence. In this analysis, two sets of baseline parameter values are compiled: one for areas that exhibit high transmission rate and another one for areas with low transmission rates. Sensitivity indices for the basic reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium points are computed. The study established that in areas of low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate, but the equilibrium proportion of the infectious humans is most sensitive to the human recovery rate. Sensitivity analysis on all state variables was conducted. The results indicated that the most influential factors in the transmission and persistence of malaria in the society are those related to vectorial competence. These findings suggests that strategies that target the vector characteristics such as the mosquito biting rate and those that target the human recovery rate can be very successful in controlling malaria. These strategies include the use of insecticide-treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, prompt diagnosis and treatment of infectious individuals. However, a combination of intervention strategies is more effective than application of a single intervention.