A SEMIPARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE LIFE CYCLE-PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS

Abstract

This paper considers a semiparametric regression model to test the various implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income (LCP) hypothesis proposed by Hall (1978). The semiparametric regression model does not require any parametric assumption on the functional form of the unknown utility function in our analysis. In contrast, the linear regression models frequently used in the literature are justified under specific parametric forms of the utility function and may lead to a misleading conclusion on the LCP hypothesis if the parameterization is incorrect. Using both linear and semiparametric regression models, tests of the martingale property of consumption along with several specification tests are performed on the U. S quarterly data from 1947 to 1990. The results from the semiparametric model do not differ significantly from those from the linear model and suggest some evidences against the implications of the LCP hypothesis. [C14]