A semi-Markov formulation of the pavement maintenance optimization problem

Abstract

The problem of determining optimal pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies is a special case of a more general problem termed the asset depreciation problem. Perhaps the most general formulation and solution of the asset depreciation problem is the semi-Markov formulation. This paper illustrates how the semi-Markov formulation and solution of the general asset depreciation problem can be applied to pavements. The semi-Markov formulation, like the Markov formulation, characterizes pavement deterioration probabilistically and represents human intervention (maintenance and rehabilitation) as slowing or modifying the basic probabilities of deterioration. The Markov formulation, first implemented for the state of Arizona, is shown to be a special case of the more general, less computationally intensive semi-Markov formulation. The application of the semi-Markov formulation is illustrated at the project level for a heavy-duty pavement in Manitoba. Key words: asset depreciation, infrastructure management, pavement management, probabilistic modelling, Markov, semi-Markov, maintenance optimization, project level.