A secondary modal decomposition ensemble deep learning model for groundwater level prediction using multi-data

Abstract

Groundwater level (GWL) prediction is important for ecological protection and resource utilization; it helps in formulating policies for artificial groundwater recharge, modifying the number of extraction wells, etc., and can support sustainable human development as well as inform water resource management decisions. However, climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and the complex coupling between surface water and groundwater increase the difficulty of predicting groundwater levels. The model proposed in this paper combines external data as well as multiple models. The method leverages long and short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models, combined with secondary modal decomposition and slime mould algorithm (SMA), together with an adaptive weight module (AWM). The study applies this method to predict GWL for three different hydrological conditions in China, specifically for the Jinan Baotu Spring, Heihu Spring, and Zhongtianshe watershed of Taihu Lake. A comparison of metrics such as mean absolute error and Nash efficiency coefficient for single and hybrid models shows that the model in this paper is more advantageous than the single model and other hybrid models. The interpretability of the model is enhanced by SHAP values that demonstrate the degree of contribution of the input variables. This paper uses SHAP analyses to identify the key drivers affecting groundwater levels. These factors must be detected in order to develop groundwater resource protection measures.