Abstract
This paper presents a trend analysis of monthly riverflows recorded at the Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL during the 1930–2001 water years. The environmental concern is that increasing urbanization upstream (Atlanta and Columbus, GA) increases downstream riverflows. In statistical terms, our objective is to test whether there are months in which riverflows are significantly increasing. For this purpose, a parsimonious periodic autoregressive moving-average time series model is fitted to the error structure of the series. The covariances of this time series model are then used to assess the significance of monthly and yearly linear trend estimators. In the end, we do not find strong evidence of increasing riverflows.
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