A scoring system to predict the occurrence of very late stent thrombosis following percutaneous coronary intervention for acute coronary syndrome

Abstract

We aimed to derive and validate an effective risk score to identify high-risk patients of very late stent thrombosis (VLST), following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Stepwise multivariable Cox regression was used to build the risk model using data from 5,185 consecutive ACS patients treated with PCI (derivation cohort) and 2,058 patients from the external validation cohort. Eight variables were independently associated with the development of VLST: history of diabetes mellitus, previous PCI, acute myocardial infarction as admitting diagnosis, estimated glomerular filtration rate <90 ml/min/1.73 m2, three-vessel disease, number of stents per lesion, sirolimus-eluting stent, and no post-dilation. Based on the derived score, patients were classified into low- (≤7), intermediate- (8–9), and high- (≥10) risk categories. Observed VLST rates were 0.5%, 2.2%, and 8.7% and 0.45%, 2.3%, and 9.3% across the 3 risk categories in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. High discrimination (c-statistic = 0.80 and 0.82 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively) and excellent calibration were observed in both cohorts. VLST risk score, a readily useable and efficient tool to identify high-risk patients of VLST after PCI for ACS, may aid in risk-stratification and pre-emptive decision-making.