A scoping review of published literature on mathematical modelling for chikungunya.

Abstract

Abstract Chikungunya is a disease caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus that is emerging and re-emerging in different parts of the world. Urban expansion, globalization, increase in human travel and tourism are some of the factors increasing the risk of importation of the disease in new areas. Furthermore, climate change is modifying the environmental suitability for the establishment of CHIKV vectors and can add to the risk for the autochthonous transmission of chikungunya in many geographical areas. In a recent scoping review (ScR), the literature published on chikungunya until January 2017 was broadly categorized according to different research areas. The results presented here focus exclusively on the 103 articles categorized under mathematical modelling. All 103 articles were revisited and further reclassified into four non-exclusive categories based on their methodology - disease transmission modelling, mathematical equations used to perform risk assessment, vector mapping and burden of disease assessment. A new data characterization form was devised, which included specific sets of questions tailored to each category. Extracted data were analysed and our results show that over the last 20 years, there has been a significant increase in the number of publications on chikungunya transmission modelling, or using mathematical equations to perform risk assessment, vector mapping and burden of disease assessment. A total of 76 articles have contributed information on disease transmission modelling, 37 on risk assessment, 20 on vector mapping and eight on burden of disease. Data including the specific purpose of the models, methods used, geographical areas targeted and main results from each article were identified and collated.