A sclerosis of demography

Abstract

The future of tourism is dominated by discussions on sustainability, but the single biggest issue that is largely ignored is demography. As a key driver for future tourism demand, demography needs a strategic planning approach. This article takes a scenario planning perspective and examines the future of tourism in New Zealand and how it will be shaped by demography. This article, as part of a wider study on the future of tourism, focuses on a scenario–sclerosis of demography–where the tourism industry is in a downward spiral of decline with tourists spending less monies year on year because of ageing populations, resulting in falling productivity and less disposable income in future years. This scenario is based upon two key issues. First, as populations age, the pressure on New Zealand’s public purse is contested and second, older consumers extend their healthy years resulting in an ageless society. The scenario raises four key questions for the future. First, what is the role of tourism in an ageing society? Second, if the New Zealand tourism sector fails and as a consequence government is forced to intervene, what does this mean? Third, what is the impact on future immigration policies as a consequence of a decline in traditional labour supplies? Finally, what is the future of youth tourism if future generations are stifled by debt and lack of purchasing power? The article concludes with a conceptual map as a strategic planning device that considers these questions and offers answers around the themes of lifestyle, the role of government, economic aspects, and trends in employment.