A scenario-based interval-input output model to analyze the risk of COVID-19 pandemic in port logistics

Abstract

PurposePresently, Indian sectors are manifesting a higher level of interdependency and making the economy more vulnerable to human-caused and natural disasters. COVID-19 pandemic creates a devastating effect on the world economy. The Indian economy was expected to lose around ₹ 32,000 crores every day during the first 21 days of complete lockdown. This motivates to conduct the research on how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the port logistics sector and how the effects of COVID-19 on port logistics propagate to other sectors owing to its interconnectedness and affect the economy of the country.Design/methodology/approachThe purpose of the study is analyze how perturbation in one sector can affect the system of interdependent sectors and it is done with interdependency analysis. It uses Wassily Leontief’s inoperability input-output model (IIM) and interval programming (IP) to develop a framework. IP is used to address situations where assumptions are not valid because of uncertainties associated with disruptive events.FindingsThe model helps in describing how the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in port logistics can propagate owing to the interconnectedness across other sectors. The model uses the latest five-year data available on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development database. It uses metrics like inoperability and economic loss to study the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic on various sectors. This study also presents the ranking of the affected sectors based on their inoperability and economic lossResearch limitations/implicationsIn the future study, other techniques like dynamic evolution, multiplex network analysis, analytical hierarchy process, pinch analysis, stochastic evolution and pinch graph could be integrated with input-output (I-O) modelling. Integrated stochastic evolution with an I-O model allows capturing the likelihood of the events; it includes probability distributions instead of point estimates for scenario parameters. Methods like dynamic evolution and multiplex network analysis can be introduced in future work to shed lights on interdependency among the sector, which could potentially provide additional insights for transport policy formulations.Originality/valueThis study discusses the theory, methodology and application of the IIM-IP model in the domain of port logistics. The developed IIM-IP model helps decision-makers to manage risk in port logistics. Firstly, it studies how different sectors are interconnected with each other. Secondly, it helps in identifying the most vulnerable sectors based on economic loss and inoperability. Thirdly, it provides the ranking of the sectors based on their economic losses.