A scenario approach to the evaluation of sustainable urban structure for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Seoul

Abstract

The effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions has become an important issue in a variety of fields, including urban systems. Hence, a more detailed planning policy, with appropriate approaches to evaluation, is necessary to determine the future urban spatial structure. In this paper, we utilize geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the travel times for journeys undertaken by automobiles and subway systems, and a modal split model is proposed to estimate the modal share. Then, the reduction ratio of carbon dioxide emissions is evaluated by assessing several scenarios intended to determine the best policy directions for reorganizing the urban spatial structure, with the aim of lowering the environmental impacts. As a result, a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions could be achieved in the following ways: (1) long distance commutes could be reduced by increasing residential spaces where jobs are plentiful, (2) areas where accessibility to stations is good and also where the modal share of subways is high should be given priority for development, and (3) commutes could be decreased by improving the jobs–housing balance.