Abstract
Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.
Highlights
Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions
The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (2,1,2)(1,1,1)[12] model well reflected the trend in the incidence of dengue in Campinas
We showed that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring 1, 2 (p = 2) and 12 (S = 12 and p = 1) months prior, and we found that a moving-average component of order q equal to 2 is adequate for the data
Summary
Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. Dengue is a disease of great importance for public health in tropical and sub-tropical areas of the world. It is estimated that between 50 and 100 million cases of dengue fever occur each year[1,2], and about two-thirds of the world's population live in areas infested with dengue vectors[3]. In Brazil, more than three million cases were reported from 2000 to 2005, comprising approximately 70% of reported dengue fever cases in the Americas[5]. In Brazil, the first laboratory-confirmed dengue outbreak was reported in 1981-1982 in the State of Roraima[6], and no further dengue activity was reported until 1986 with the introduction of DEN-1 in the State of Rio de Janeiro[7]
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