Abstract
Abstract A Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to approximate the service life distribution of thermal plant boiler tubes, using temperature, initial tube wall thickness, corrosion rate and metallurgical creep life as normal random variables. The stress sensitivity and activation energy of corrosion were included by using a sensitivity analysis. The approach was based on a recently-developed residual life model [3], which can predict boiler tube life on the basis of in-plant wall-thinning measurements. This model does not depend on knowledge of the tube effective operating temperature, in contrast with other approaches.For reheater tubes, it is shown that an estimate of the mean service life of the given tube population can be obtained to ± 10000 h with 95 % confidence by examining about eight sample tubes. For superheater tubes which have a greater standard deviation, sample size is typically about 22 tubes.
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