Abstract

This paper presents a novel algorithm for constructing non-asymptotic confidence ellipsoids for linear regression models with deterministic regressors. The confidence ellipsoids are centered at the least-squares estimate, and the true parameter lies within the ellipsoid with a probability specified by the user. The confidence ellipsoid is constructed by drawing independent samples of the noise sequence and exploiting an ordering property for independent and identically distributed random variables. The main assumption on the noise is that it has a known joint density so that samples can be drawn. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through a simulation example of an FIR system. The constructed confidence ellipsoid is compared with the confidence regions obtained using the Sign-Perturbed Sum method and asymptotic system identification theory.

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