A rule-based Bayesian network modelling under evidential reasoning theory for risk analysis of anchoring operation in maritime transportation

Abstract

Anchoring is one of the most repeated routine operations concerning many maritime transportation vessel types. The operation poses significant risks due to the nature of the work and could cause damage to the vessel, commodity, or environment. This paper introduces a conceptual framework to analyse the risk of anchoring operations by adopting a rule-based Bayesian Network (BN) under evidential reasoning (ER) modelling. Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is used to gain detailed insight into the operational hazards of anchoring, while rule-based BN extended ER is capable of dealing with the weaknesses of FMECA by evaluating the importance of risks. In this context, Failure Mode 5.2 (Ship rudder/thruster/steering system failure) with an RPN of 46.42 was determined as the most critical danger for anchoring operations on ships. The research outcomes will provide valuable insight to the maritime industry, in particular ship owners, ship crew, safety managers, and superintendents, to retain a high level of safety at the operational level and minimize anchoring-related accidents onboard ships.