A robust risk assessment method for energy planning scenarios on smart islands under the demand uncertainty

Abstract

Energy systems with a high share of variable renewable energy are more vulnerable to sudden changes in the system operation. This is especially emphasized on small systems such as energy systems on geographical islands. Because of these reasons, there is a need for quantifying the risk of energy scenarios of such systems. This paper presents a novel robust risk assessment method under demand uncertainty for energy planning scenarios for the islands. The method uses graph theory for the representation of power system topology. The Poisson distribution is used for calculating the probability of power system element failure. The robust modelling approach is applied by the introduction of auxiliary variables and compared to the deterministic model results. Four energy planning scenarios for Unije island are modelled and subjugated to several power system outages resulting in a risk vector calculated as the product of probability vector and damage matrix. The study also presents a zero-import risk energy planning scenario for Unije island that is achieved for a system of 0.5 MW photovoltaic plant and 3.55 MWh battery storage system.