A risk-based methodology for combating terrorism

Abstract

We develop a methodology for analyzing risk to the meat supply, with a specific focus on slaughterhouses. The safety of the nation's meat supply from terrorist attack has become a major concern of the USDA after the September 11/sup th/ attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center. The methodology performs a risk assessment through hierarchical holographic modelling (HHM). The goal of the HHM is to capture all observables of a terrorist attack as well as identify all of the vulnerabilities of the target. A 2-player game using a blue team and red team aided in completing a more thorough HHM diagram. This process identified key observables such as researching of toxins and access to meat processing machines as possible indicators of an attack. Bayes' theorem serves as the key tool for analyzing the observables identified through the HHM diagram to assess the likelihood of terrorist attack.