A risk prediction model for severe intraventricular hemorrhage in very low birth weight infants and the effect of prophylactic indomethacin

Abstract

Develop a risk prediction model for severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in very low birth weight infants (VLBWI). Prospectively collected data of infants with birth weight 500 to 1249 g born between 2001 and 2010 in centers from the Neocosur Network were used. Forward stepwise logistic regression model was employed. The model was tested in the 2011 cohort and then applied to the population of VLBWI that received prophylactic indomethacin to analyze its effect in the risk of severe IVH. Data from 6538 VLBWI were analyzed. The area under ROC curve for the model was 0.79 and 0.76 when tested in the 2011 cohort. The prophylactic indomethacin group had lower incidence of severe IVH, especially in the highest-risk groups. A model for early severe IVH prediction was developed and tested in our population. Prophylactic indomethacin was associated with a lower risk-adjusted incidence of severe IVH.