A risk-aware and second-order cone programming model for wind expansion planning considering correlated uncertainties using the copula method

Abstract

Integration of large-scale renewable energy sources (RESs) into existing power grids is challenging for power system operators and planners due to the intermittent and uncertain characteristics of RESs and the limitation of transmission capacity. This paper presents a new risk-based framework to obtain the optimal placement and sizing of wind farms in the bulk power system considering the impact of mutual correlation between wind farms’ power productions in different candidate buses. In this regard, a second-order cone programming (SOCP) optimization problem is developed to minimize the total expected social cost including the operation cost of conventional generators, wind curtailment cost, and the investment cost of newly installed wind farms. In the proposed model, the correlated uncertainties of wind power production are incorporated using the copula method. Also, the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure is utilized to manage the risk of the model associated with uncertainties. The proposed planning model is then implemented into the Garver 6-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems. Given the results, employing SOCP-based AC OPF in the presented planning model results in a precise solution, demonstrating an 87% reduction in running time. Moreover, the numerical results illustrate that by considering the correlation between wind farms’ power production and reducing the risk parameter, there is a significant increase in the installed capacity of wind farms.