A Risk Assessment Model of Coalbed Methane Development Based on the Matter-Element Extension Method

Wang Wang,Zhang Zhang,Ma Ma,Lyu Lyu

doi:10.3390/en12203931

Wang Wang, Zhang Zhang + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/en12203931

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Abstract

Coalbed methane development represents a complex system engineering operation that involves complex technology, many links, long cycles, and various risks. If risks are not controlled in a timely and effective manner, project operators may easily cause different levels of casualties, resource waste and property loss. To evaluate the risk status of coalbed methane development projects, this paper constructs a coalbed methane development risk assessment index system that consists of six first grade indexes and 45 second grade indexes. The weight of each index is calculated based on the structure entropy weight method. Then, a theoretical model for risk assessments of coalbed methane development is established based on the matter-element extension method. Finally, the model is applied to analyze a coalbed methane development project in the southern Qinshui Basin of China. The results show that the overall risk level of the coalbed methane development project is Grade II, indicating that the overall risk of the project is small, but the local risk of the project needs to be rectified in time. The assessment results are consistent with the actual operation of the project, indicating that the established risk assessment model has good applicability and effectiveness.

Highlights

With the rapid development of the global economy and the continuous advancement of urbanization, national dependence on black fossil energy, such as coal and oil, has increased.this increased dependence has caused excessive emissions to the atmosphere of toxic and harmful substances, such as carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and soot
The correlation degree of comprehensive risk of the research object is 0.108, and the overall risk level of the coalbed methane (CBM) development project is judged to be Grade II according to the principle of maximum membership degree
This finding shows that the overall risk of the project is small and within an acceptable range, but the local risk of the project needs to be rectified in a timely manner

Summary

Introduction

With the rapid development of the global economy and the continuous advancement of urbanization, national dependence on black fossil energy, such as coal and oil, has increased This increased dependence has caused excessive emissions to the atmosphere of toxic and harmful substances, such as carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and soot. To achieve a balance between economic development and environmental protection, China’s energy use structure is changing to a pattern of “high efficiency, low energy consumption, low pollution and low emissions” under the leadership of the government [1]. In this context, coalbed methane (CBM) has become a prominent resource. Since 1949, 126 severe gas explosion accidents (defined as killing 30 or more people in one accident) have occurred, Energies 2019, 12, 3931; doi:10.3390/en12203931 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

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