A Risk Analysis Method for Estimation of Financial Benefits of the Existing Mine Ventilation System

Abstract

A case study was conducted on a metal mine operating in Kazakhstan, in which problems were associated with use of a complicated and outdated ventilation system and its high expenses. The mine needs to reconsider its existing ventilation system and identify the risks associated with operational losses when using this ventilation system. The aim of this study was to develop an efficient risk analysis method capable of estimating operational risks and financial benefits of the existing mine ventilation system. The developed risk analysis method considers ventilation modelling, risk modelling, and financial modelling. Ventilation modelling comprises ventilation simulation and ventilation financial simulation. In risk modelling, the number of risk events occurring with the use of existing ventilation system and the operational losses during these events is estimated. Financial modelling considers operational losses and ventilation financial simulation benefits and uses a dynamic cash flow model to estimate how cost variability influences the cash flow. As a result, the improved ventilation system attains an additional NPVa ranging from 3.2 to 8.5 million US$ at the corresponding defined probability of 90%. The results of this study reveal that the developed risk analysis method can efficiently estimate the financial benefits of ventilation modelling and consider risk events and their total operational losses associated with use of the existing ventilation system. This approach provides a range of possible outcomes and helps with deciding whether the ventilation system is appropriate or whether it should be updated to better suit the project financial benefits.