Abstract
Multimodal transportation has become a main focus of logistics systems due to environmental concerns, road safety issues, and traffic congestion. Consequently, research and policy interests in multimodal freight transportation problems are increasing. However, there are major challenges in the development of multimodal transportation associated with inherent risks and numerous uncertainties. Since risks are potential threats that directly impact logistics and transportation systems, comprehensive risk analysis should be carried out. Risk analysis is a critical process of identifying and analyzing significant issues to help industry mitigate those risks. However, identifying and prioritizing risks is more complex because of the ambiguity of the relevant data. This study proposes the integration of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) for identifying and assessing quantitative risks. The proposed FAHP-DEA methodology uses the FAHP method to determine the weights of each risk criterion. The DEA method is employed to evaluate the linguistic variables and generate the risk scores. The simple additive weighting (SAW) method is used to aggregate risk scores under different risk criteria into an overall risk score. A case study of the coal industry demonstrates that the proposed risk analysis model is practical and allows users to more accurately prioritize risks while selecting an optimal multimodal transportation route. The process raises user's attention to the high-priority risks and is useful for industries in optimizing a multimodal transportation route under risk decision criteria.
Highlights
Freight transportation is an integral supply chain element for providing timely availability and effective movement of raw materials and finished goods [1]
This study proposes a novel framework for analyzing risks in multimodal freight transportation systems on the basis of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP)-data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach
For i = 1, .., n; j = 1, .., m; p = 1, .., l where Wp is the criterion weight determined by the FAHP methodology, S(Lpk) are the optimal scores of the assessment grades solved by Eq (18), and V (Aij) is the overall weight of n decision alternatives, from which the alternatives are prioritized [7], [23]
Summary
Freight transportation is an integral supply chain element for providing timely availability and effective movement of raw materials and finished goods [1]. To avoid a large number of pairwise comparisons in FAHP method, the proposed model requires the experts to only provide pairwise comparisons on decision criteria Linguistic terms such as Very high, High, Medium, Low and Very low are used to simplify experts’ assessment when selecting risk scores in DEA method. 2) This study proposes a valid risk analysis framework to reduce bias in risk assessment and to help develop a new decision support system for assessing quantitative risk in multimodal transportation. It uses a qualitative expert opinion system to manage subjective risks in multimodal freight transportation.
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