A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges

Abstract

SUMMARY This report presents an up-to-date review of the British Isles (BI) Mean Sea Level (MSL) data set obtained from tide gauges, and of the long-term secular trends in BI MSL. The data are of mixed quality, and not as copious as one would like for scientific analysis given the complexity of long-term sea and land level changes around BI coasts. Nevertheless, the small number of very long records can be studied eVectively, and indicate that twentieth century secular trends in BI MSL are consistent with those obtained from NW Europe as a whole and with the bottom range of estimates for global average MSL change during the past 100 years. Century-timescale low-frequency ‘accelerations’ in MSL of the order of 0.4‐0.8 mm yr’1 century’1 are obtained from the three longest records, which are also similar to estimates from mainland Europe. ‘Sea level indices’ for the BI are constructed which can provide responsible agencies with a guide to the ‘average state’ of BI sea level. Combined ocean tide and storm surge (‘tide+surge’) numerical modelling is demonstrated to be a valuable tool in understanding part of the variability of MSL around the BI, although modelling of long-term changes is limited at present by the lack of adequate meteorological data sets from before 1955. Nevertheless, it is shown that, even if a complete meteorological modelling data set were available, it would not be able to account for all of the MSL variability. Finally, recommendations are made for the development of tide gauge and Global Positioning System (GPS) recording in the BI for the purpose of long-term MSL monitoring in the next century.