A Review of the PSA Model Truncation Convergence Issues at Some ENS Plants

Abstract

This study provides the insights gained from the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model update of several Entergy Nuclear South (ENS) plants with respect to truncation convergence based on the limited guidance on the issue in the industry. The industry rule of thumb, the ASME and NRC guidance and requirements on the subject have been reviewed. The recent model updates performed at some of the ENS plants (River Bend, ANO 1 and 2) considered these criteria. Based on the current criteria used in the industry for truncation convergence, the recent PSA model update results for the River Bend Station (RBS) and ANO-1 are not converging even at a low truncation limit of 1E−11/reactor-year (yr). Many improvements were introduced in the recent model updates and convergence was expected at higher truncation values. This paper discusses the issues identified that are related to the convergence of the PSA results at low truncation limits.