A review of recent advances (2018–2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, part 2: Forecasts by operational centers

Abstract

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone (TC) operational forecast centers during the last four years (2018–2021). It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs (IWTC) held in Bali, Indonesia, from Dec. 5–9, 2022. Part I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance. This part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational centers. It is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in 2018. In particular, the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated, compared with years before 2018. Consensus models, operational procedures, tools and techniques, as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are described. Research needs and recommendations are also discussed.