A review of methods to account for impacts of non-stationary climate data on extreme rainfalls for design rainfall estimation in South Africa

Abstract

Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall and flood events are used to determine design rainfalls and design floods which are needed to design hydraulic structures such as dams, spillways and culverts. Standard methods for frequency analysis of extreme events are based on the assumption of a stationary climate. However, this assumption in rainfall and flood frequency analysis is being challenged with growing evidence of climate change. As a consequence of a changing climate, the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events are reported to have increased in parts of South Africa, and these and other changes in extreme rainfall occurrences are expected to continue into the future. The possible non-stationarity in climate resulting in changes in rainfall may impact on the accuracy of the estimation of extreme rainfall quantities and design rainfall estimations. This may have significant consequences for the design of new hydraulic infrastructure, as well as for the rehabilitation of existing infrastructure. Hence, methods that account for non-stationary data, such as caused by climate change, need to be developed. This may be achieved by using data from downscaled global circulation models in order to identify non-stationary climate variables which affect rainfall, and which can then be incorporated into extreme value analysis of a non-stationary data series.