A Review of Bayesian Networks as a Participatory Modeling Approach in Support of Sustainable Environmental Management

Abstract

To support sustainable environmental management, uncertain knowledge about complex human-environment-systems from both inside and outside of academia needs to be integrated. Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is a promising method to achieve this, in particular if done in a participatory manner. Based on a review of 30 cases of participatory BN modeling of environmental problem fields, and of three guidelines, we summarize recommendations for BN modeling with stakeholder involvement. In addition, strengths and limitations of BNs are synthesized. We found that BNs were successfully applied for knowledge integration and identification of sustainable management strategies within participatory processes. Due to many favorable characteristics, BNs have the potential to become a core method of transdisciplinary knowledge integration in environmental management.