Abstract
To support sustainable environmental management, uncertain knowledge about complex human-environment-systems from both inside and outside of academia needs to be integrated. Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is a promising method to achieve this, in particular if done in a participatory manner. Based on a review of 30 cases of participatory BN modeling of environmental problem fields, and of three guidelines, we summarize recommendations for BN modeling with stakeholder involvement. In addition, strengths and limitations of BNs are synthesized. We found that BNs were successfully applied for knowledge integration and identification of sustainable management strategies within participatory processes. Due to many favorable characteristics, BNs have the potential to become a core method of transdisciplinary knowledge integration in environmental management.
Highlights
Sustainability-oriented environmental management and planning deals with problem fields that are characterized by (1) a significant degree of uncertainty or even ignorance and (2) different and legitimate perspectives on what is pertinent and what is best
The 30 reviewed case studies have shown that Bayesian Network (BN) modeling can be successfully applied within a participative process
Many features make BNs suitable for supporting the identification of sustainable management strategies in problem fields related to complex human-environment systems
Summary
Sustainability-oriented environmental management and planning deals with problem fields that are characterized by (1) a significant degree of uncertainty or even ignorance and (2) different and legitimate perspectives on what is pertinent and what is best This prevents identification of “optimal” management strategies based on purely scientific evidence (Giampietro, 2002). For integrated water resources management that aims at optimizing ecosystem services, for example, there may be a need to estimate the impact of a certain water management measure on both farmer income and the health of riparian vegetation All these problem fields are embedded in complex human-environment systems. Uusitalo (2007) reviewed the advantages as well as the challenges of using BNs in environmental modeling and summarized the state of the art of applying BNs. Fernández, Rumí and Salmerón (2011) found that less than 5% of all identified applications of BNs were in the field of environmental sciences.
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