Abstract

We discuss hypothesis testing and compare different theories in light of observed or experimental data as fundamental endeavors in the sciences. Issues associated with the p-value approach and null hypothesis significance testing are reviewed, and the Bayesian alternative based on the Bayes factor is introduced, along with a review of computational methods and sensitivity related to prior distributions. We demonstrate how Bayesian testing can be practically implemented in several examples, such as the t-test, two-sample comparisons, linear mixed models, and Poisson mixed models by using existing software. Caveats and potential problems associated with Bayesian testing are also discussed. We aim to inform researchers in the many fields where Bayesian testing is not in common use of a well-developed alternative to null hypothesis significance testing and to demonstrate its standard implementation.

Highlights

  • Hypothesis testing is an important tool in modern research

  • The dominant approach for these comparisons is based on hypothesis testing using a p-value, which is the probability, under repeated sampling, of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the observed under the null hypothesis [4,8]

  • We provide the R code to compute the Bayes factor for a one-sample t-test, a multiway analysis of variance (ANOVA), a repeated-measures design, and a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLM)

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Summary

Introduction

Hypothesis testing is an important tool in modern research. It is applied in a wide range of fields, from forensic analysis, business intelligence, and manufacturing quality control, to the theoretical framework of assessing the plausibility of theories in physics, psychology, and fundamental science [1,2,3,4,5]. If a third independent study with a much larger sample size had an effect estimate of 2.5 ± 1.0, it would have a mean that is 2.5 standard errors away from 0 and indicate statistical significance at an alpha level of 1%, as in the first study. In this case, the difference between the results of the third and the first studies would be.

Definition
Computation of the Bayes Factor
Prior Elicitation and Sensitivity Analysis
Prior Distributions
Prior Elicitation
Sensitivity Analysis
Applications of the Bayes Factor Using R Packages
One-Sample t-Test
Multiway ANOVA
Repeated-Measures Design
Poisson Mixed-Effects Model
Summary
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