A retrospective cohort study of case fatality rate of HIV/AIDS cases and influencing factors in Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 1996-2021

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the case fatality rate of HIV/AIDS cases and influencing factors in Jingzhou. Methods: The data were retrieved from HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information System and the cases diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in Jingzhou during 1996-2021 and aged 15 years or older were selected for the study. The death curve was drawn with Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox proportional-hazards model was used to identify influencing factors for death. Results: A total of 3 304 HIV/AIDS cases were followed up for 16 091.5 person-years, and 893 cases died, with a case fatality rate of 5.5/100 person-years. The cumulative case fatality rates of 1, 5 and 10 years were 15.4%, 25.0% and 34.6% respectively, the cumulative case fatality rates of 1, 5 and 10 years were 6.9%, 14.4% and 23.7% in the cases with access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 68.0%, 90.1% and 98.7% in the cases without access to ART. The results of Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that the risk for death was higher in those without access to ART than in those with access to ART (aHR=9.85, 95%CI: 8.19-11.85). The risk factors for death in those with access to ART included being men (aHR=1.64, 95%CI: 1.29-2.08), age ≥60 years old at diagnosis (aHR=3.52, 95%CI: 2.38-5.20), being infected by injecting drug use/others (aHR=2.38, 95%CI:1.30-4.34), being detected by medical institution (aHR=1.53, 95%CI: 1.11-2.11), CD4+T lymphocytes(CD4) counts <50 cells/μl (aHR=2.58, 95%CI: 1.87-3.58). The protective factor for death was high education level (high school and technical secondary school: aHR=0.64,95%CI:0.46-0.90; college and above: aHR=0.42, 95%CI: 0.24-0.73). The risk factors for HIV/AIDS death in those without access to ART included older age at diagnosis (30-44 years old: aHR=2.32, 95%CI: 1.40-3.84; 45-59 years old:aHR=2.61, 95%CI: 1.59-4.27; ≥60 years old: aHR=3.31, 95%CI: 2.01-5.47), lower CD4 counts (<50 cells/μl: aHR=10.47, 95%CI: 6.47-16.56; 50-199 cells/μl: aHR=2.31, 95%CI: 1.08-4.94; 200-349 cells/μl: aHR=2.35, 95%CI: 1.46-3.79). Conclusions: The case fatality rate of HIV/AIDS was relatively high in Jingzhou from 1996 to 2021, the first CD4 counts, ART and age at diagnosis were the major factors affecting HIV/AIDS death, "Expanding testing" and "prompt treatment upon diagnosis" should be continued and enhanced to improve the efficacy of ART and HIV/AIDS case survival.