Abstract
This study modelled the changes in the development processes of the health-threatening tick Ixodes ricinus in Northern Europe as driven by the trends of temperature (1950–2018). We used the ECA&D dataset to calculate the annual accumulated temperature to obtain the development rates of the oviposition, incubation, larva–nymph, and nymph–adult molts. Annual values were used to ascertain the trend in development rates of each stage. The ecological classification of Northern Europe (LANMAP2) was used to summarize results. The temperature in 1950–2018 clearly increased in the target territory. The development rates of every tested life cycle process were faster along the time series. Faster oviposition and incubation rates resulted in central Sweden, Baltic countries, and parts of Finland. Faster molting rates were observed in the same territories and in large areas of Western Norway. The trend of temperature in the period 1950–2018 shows a consistent inflection point around 1990, demonstrating that the increased annual accumulated temperature has a deeper impact on the life cycle of I. ricinus since approximately 1990. Faster development rates could be part of the processes driving the reported spread of the tick in the target area and should be considered as a serious threat to human health.
Highlights
World scientists recently released a “Second Warning to Humanity” [1] based on the manifesto issued 25 years ago by the Union of Concerned Scientists
While studies mostly addressed the impact of the climate trends on free living organisms, there is a lack of information regarding the impact on the life cycle processes regulating the development of ticks of potential importance for human health, because of its role in the transmission of pathogens to humans
This study modelled the impact of the changes in temperature on the development rates of the tick I. ricinus in its northern distribution fringe, the area expected to be more affected by the trends of climate
Summary
World scientists recently released a “Second Warning to Humanity” [1] based on the manifesto issued 25 years ago by the Union of Concerned Scientists. While studies mostly addressed the impact of the climate trends on free living organisms, there is a lack of information regarding the impact on the life cycle processes regulating the development of ticks of potential importance for human health, because of its role in the transmission of pathogens to humans. Studies addressed the predicted impact of climate trends on species of plants or animals, commonly using mechanistic models matching known distributions with explanatory variables of diverse quality [2,3,4]. Some of these studies explicitly addressed the expected effects of the climate trends on the distribution and phenology of parasitic arthropods [5,6]. The interest on ticks increased in the last years after the realization that human pathogens are (re)emerging, like the agents of Lyme borreliosis [9,10] or the recurrent epidemics and apparent spread of Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever [11,12]
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