A retrospective and lessons learned from Natural Resources Canada’s Forest 2020 afforestation initiative

Abstract

Canada is seeking cost-effective means to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2, that have been linked to global climate change. In 2003 the Government of Canada launched the Forest 2020 Plantation Development and Assessment Initiative to assess the potential for fast-growing woody crops to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Across the country 6000 ha of plantations were established and monitored on nonforested lands (afforestation) using a variety of methods. Economic analyses assessed the investment attractiveness of this mitigation measure for a range of species and suitable lands, taking into account such factors as growth rates, agricultural opportunity costs and a range of possible carbon values. Analyses illustrated that at current trading prices for carbon and for much of the available lands and expanding markets for forest bioproducts, expected rates of return on investment for afforestation were relatively low. However, higher future carbon prices, combined with monetary values for environmental benefits, could dramatically change the economics of afforestation in the future. Key words: afforestation, carbon sequestration, forest carbon offset project, climate change mitigation, policy analysis, risk analysis, forest investment analysis, hybrids, hybrid poplar, fast-growing trees