Abstract
This study is aimed at analyzing and monitoring the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria using some selected statistical tools. The data used for the study comprised of daily reported new cases of the pandemic as of 18th August 2020. The data was sourced from the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC). Some time-series models were used to estimate the trend and make forecasts of the prevalence of the pandemic while control charts were employed in monitoring the variations in the mean number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily. The Individual values, MovingAverage and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control charts were employed for this purpose. The study revealed that, although efforts to contain the spread of the virus are yielding some positive results, the daily spread of the virus in Nigeria is out of control. It was recommended that the government should intensify measures to curb the spread of the virus in the country.
 Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, control charts, Trend, EWMA, Moving Average.
Highlights
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is known to be caused by a virus strain known as SARS-CoV-2[1,2]
On 31 January 2020, following the developments of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China and other countries worldwide, the federal government of Nigeria set up a Coronavirus Preparedness Group to mitigate the impact of the virus if it eventually spreads to the country[4,5]
The first confirmed case of the pandemic in Nigeria was announced on 27 February 2020, when an Italian citizen in Lagos tested positive for the virus
Summary
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is known to be caused by a virus strain known as SARS-CoV-2[1,2]. It was first discovered in Wuhan in Hubei Province of China in December 2019. On 31 January 2020, following the developments of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China and other countries worldwide, the federal government of Nigeria set up a Coronavirus Preparedness Group to mitigate the impact of the virus if it eventually spreads to the country[4,5]. The first confirmed case of the pandemic in Nigeria was announced on 27 February 2020, when an Italian citizen in Lagos tested positive for the virus. Since the confirmation of the index case, the spread of the virus has been on the increase across the nation with Lagos, Abuja, and recently, Kano as the most affected states in Nigeria. This study, attempts to analyze and monitor the spread of the novel coronavirus in Nigeria using some basic statistical tools
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