Abstract
Malaria modeling can inform policy and guide research for malaria elimination and eradication from local implementation to global policy. A research and development agenda for malaria modeling is proposed, to support operations and to enhance the broader eradication research agenda. Models are envisioned as an integral part of research, planning, and evaluation, and modelers should ideally be integrated into multidisciplinary teams to update the models iteratively, communicate their appropriate use, and serve the needs of other research scientists, public health specialists, and government officials. A competitive and collaborative framework will result in policy recommendations from multiple, independently derived models and model systems that share harmonized databases. As planned, modeling results will be produced in five priority areas: (1) strategic planning to determine where and when resources should be optimally allocated to achieve eradication; (2) management plans to minimize the evolution of drug and pesticide resistance; (3) impact assessments of new and needed tools to interrupt transmission; (4) technical feasibility assessments to determine appropriate combinations of tools, an associated set of target intervention coverage levels, and the expected timelines for achieving a set of goals in different socio-ecological settings and different health systems; and (5) operational feasibility assessments to weigh the economic costs, capital investments, and human resource capacities required.
Highlights
A global malaria eradication effort will require massive changes to a complex web of interconnected biological systems
The range of conditions that favour malaria transmission are so varied and diverse that decisions and plans cannot be based solely on the evidence that has been acquired in randomized control trials conducted in only a few settings
The following document describes the history of malaria modeling, discusses the framework we developed for reaching consensus on the basis of independently derived models, provides an agenda to improve the science of modeling with supporting curated databases and digital interfaces, and identifies priority tasks within the broader agenda
Summary
A global malaria eradication effort will require massive changes to a complex web of interconnected biological systems. Rational quantitative mathematical models provide the best way to synthesize information, quantify uncertainty, and extrapolate current knowledge. N Mathematical modeling can guide all stages of malaria elimination and eradication by synthesizing information, quantifying uncertainty, and extrapolating current knowledge. Application of the modeling was mainly limited to the Global Malaria Program in Geneva, which was not considered to be an intrinsic part of the research agenda for the GMEP. Since the GMEP, substantial advances have been made in the theory and simulation modeling of malaria transmission (see Text S1), but the main research challenge for malaria eradication will be to integrate these models with surveillance, monitoring, evaluation, and with the revision of national and regional plans through every phase of eradication
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