Abstract
AbstractA numerical ‘parameterization’ model has been developed in order to predict precipitation amount over hilly terrain in North Wales. The model enables calculations to be made of the vertical velocity profile resulting from orographic and large‐scale baroclinic effects at grid points one kilometre apart over an area of 2400km2. In the present study the precipitation falling on an area of 103km2, and on areas of order 102km2 within the larger area has been predicted, using as the input to the model large‐scale wind and humidity values derived from radiosonde ascents. Seven case studies are presented. All are examples of fast moving baroclinic systems. This type of system was chosen to minimize the effects of non‐orographic mesoscale or convective mechanisms, which are not parameterized in the present model. The mean error in the predicted rainfall over 103km2 was ± 10% and over 102km2 about ± 20%.
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