A reply to Dutton´s (2013) comment

Abstract

The comment by Edward Dutton (2013) raises some interesting questions. Most of the uncertainty is found at the ends of the developmental spectrum: societies before the advent of modernity, and those that are most advanced. At the lower end, the question is: Is “primitive man” steeped in religious beliefs that are held with great conviction, or is there a primordial state of “primitive agnosticism” in which contradictory opinions about the spirit world, magic, sorcery and afterlife coexist in the same community and even the same person? A certain level of cognitive complexity and intellectual rigor seems to be required for well-formed, internally consistent belief systems. Education is an imperfect measure of acculturation as well as of intelligence. Therefore I agree that a reason for apparent positive associations between religiosity and education in the least developed countries, especially in tropical Africa, most likely is the prevalence of “pre-religious” or “proto-religious” beliefs that are focused on magic and sorcery (e.g., Jahoda, 1970; Zusne & Jones, 1989). There may even be a “mission school effect” caused by the role of Christian missionaries in the fi rst beginnings of modern schooling in many African countries. At a certain level of cultural evolution, represented by Medieval Europe and by much of sub-Saharan Africa today, organized religion represents the worldview of the more educated and sophisticated sections of society while magic and sorcery are more infl uential among the unsophisticated. In Asian countries at this level of development we fi nd both monotheistic religious beliefs (Hindu philosophy) and more-orless atheist philosophies (Buddhism, Confucianism, Taoism) among the traditionally educated, while either polytheism (India) or ritual based on ancient ancestor worship (East Asia) persisted among common people. More important for our time is the question about the viability of religion at the highest levels of cognitive development. One question is: Are people becoming more intelligent during the 21st century, or have we already reached the limits of our intellectual potential? Evidence shows that the rising intelligence trend (“Flynn effect”) that was universal in Europe and East Asia during the 20th century has ceased in these countries. Stagnation or even slow decline of intelligence is now observed among young adults, at least in the countries of northern Europe (Dutton & Lynn, in press; Meisenberg & Woodley, in press; Shayer & Ginsburg, 2009; Teasdale & Owen, 2008). Therefore radically new developments in religion and society that are not predictable from observations in today’s most advanced societies are unlikely. At the same time, continuing Flynn effects in less developed countries predict that 21st-century developments in these countries will resemble to some extent the 20th-century developments in more advanced societies (Meisenberg & Woodley, in press). In addition to infl uences of intelligence, education or rationality on religious trends, we