A replicable strategy for mapping air pollution’s community-level health impacts and catalyzing prevention

Abstract

BackgroundAir pollution was responsible for an estimated 6.7 million deaths globally in 2019 and 197,000 deaths in the United States. Fossil fuel combustion is the major source.HypothesisMapping air pollution’s health impacts at the community level using publicly available data and open-source software will provide a replicable strategy for catalyzing pollution prevention.MethodsUsing EPA’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis (BenMAP-CE) software and state data, we quantified the effects of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution on disease, death and children’s cognitive function (IQ Loss) in each city and town in Massachusetts. To develop a first-order estimate of PM2.5 pollution’s impact on child IQ, we derived a concentration-response coefficient through literature review.FindingsThe annual mean PM2.5 concentration in Massachusetts in 2019 was 6.3 μg/M3, a level below EPA’s standard of 12 μg/M3 and above WHO’s guideline of 5 μg/M3. In adults, PM2.5 pollution was responsible for an estimated 2780 (Confidence Interval [CI] 2726 – 2853) deaths: 1677 (CI, 1346 – 1926) from cardiovascular disease, 2185 (CI, 941–3409) from lung cancer, 200 (CI, 66–316) from stroke, and 343 (CI, 222–458) from chronic respiratory disease. In children, PM2.5 pollution was responsible for 308 (CI, 105–471) low-weight births, 15,386 (CJ, 5433-23,483) asthma cases, and a provisionally estimated loss of nearly 2 million Performance IQ points; IQ loss impairs children’s school performance, reduces graduation rates and decreases lifetime earnings. Air-pollution-related disease, death and IQ loss were most severe in low-income, minority communities, but occurred in every city and town in Massachusetts regardless of location, demographics or median family income.ConclusionDisease, death and IQ loss occur at air pollution exposure levels below current EPA standards. Prevention of disease and premature death and preservation of children’s cognitive function will require that EPA air quality standards be tightened. Enduring prevention will require government-incentivized transition to renewable energy coupled with phase-outs of subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels. Highly localized information on air pollution’s impacts on health and on children’s cognitive function has potential to catalyze pollution prevention.