Abstract
The cost of producing electric power over a specified study horizon is a random quantity influenced by random failures and repair times for the generating units and variations in demand over time. Previous approaches for determining the variance of the production cost have required implicit or explicit enumeration of a large set of availability or capacity states for the generation system. In this paper, a simplifying assumption makes possible a renewal reward model for the production cost. Formulas are provided to estimate the asymptotic variance for intermediate to long study horizons and their results are illustrated with a numerical example.
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