Abstract
This paper investigates the scatter inherent in the early stages of fatigue life. A probabilistic fatigue model is proposed which relates the microstructural heterogeneity to the scatter in crack nucleation life. The crack nucleation life is defined as the number of cycles necessary to develop a crack with a length equal to the grain size. The model assumes homogeneity at the level of the grain size. A fracture mechanics‐based microstructural model is used to describe the response of the grains. The primitive random variables which drive crack nucleation are identified and recent developments recorded in the literature are used to describe their statistical characteristics. First order reliability methods are used to predict the statistical distribution of fatigue crack nucleation life. Comparisons are made with trends in experimental observations.
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