A reliability-based design framework for early stages of design process

Abstract

The traditional decision-making process during early design stages deals with deterministically evaluating the design candidates in accordance with concrete objectives by assuming optimal or nominal design performance values for the candidates. However, this may increase subjectivity in the decision process since the design knowledge during early design is usually imprecise and incomplete, and mostly needs to be iteratively updated throughout product design development. To diminish the subjectivity, the knowledge of the design requirements can be precisely and accurately represented by means of probabilistic constraints that describe the uncertainties in the design requirements; therefore, in this work, a systematic design framework supported by reliability analysis is developed in such a way that it is able to provide an effective connection among the early design steps especially both at system level and component level. Thus, the probability of failures of the design candidates and their sub-solutions are investigated, based on design constraints with Gaussian distributions, or lower and upper bounds, by utilizing Monte Carlo method. To illustrate the potential applicability and efficacy of the proposed framework, a two-finger gripper design problem is considered. The results clearly demonstrate that the proposed framework is effective to achieve reliable design solutions that have uncertain quantitative characteristics to be used further in probabilistic structural analysis during the next design stages such as embodiment and detail design stages.