A reliability assessment of the heating from a hybrid energy source based on combined heat and power and wind power plants

Abstract

Nowadays, improvement in fuel economy (efficiency enhancement) and reduction in emissions are pressing issues for many energy systems. One of the most promising solutions is an integration of renewable with conventional energy sources running on fossil fuels. Hybrid energy sources have the advantages of both technologies and can significantly improve the efficiency of energy supply to consumers. At the same time, the non-stationary units operating as part of a hybrid energy source can cause problems with the energy (electrical and thermal energy) supply reliability (when analyzed and ensured). This study focuses on analysis (assessment) of reliability of heat output (supply) from a hybrid energy source based on a wind power plant (WPP) and a combined heat and power plant (CHPP) operating on fossil fuel since the CHPP operates following a thermal energy profile. The essential energy benefit of the proposed technology is the replacement of part of fossil fuel in the efficient heat and power cogeneration cycle at CHPP by energy generated from WPP. The methods proposed to solve reliability problem are based on some laws of the reliability theory, Markov random processes, the graph theory, etc. The reliability analysis also considers the change in heat loads, the heat storage effect (thermal inertia), and the random fluctuations in wind speed. The results of the case example have been analyzed, and some qualitative relationships characterizing general properties for similar objects have been obtained.