Abstract
Abstract In this paper, a fuzzy fault-tree based reliability analysis of an optimally planned transmission system is presented. A fault-tree is constructed using system minimal cuts. Fuzzy top event probabilities are calculated using trapezoidal nature fuzziness of primary events. In part-I, system minimal cuts up to third order containing line components are determined based on the condition that the system fails if a load bus fails. To establish the rank of the components and cut sets, the reliability improvement index (RII) is calculated by preventing the failure of each component and cut set separately. To establish the degree of sensitivity of components, the sensitivity index is calculated based on the change of the top event probability caused by the change of fuzziness of failure probability of each component. In part-II, system minimal cuts up to first order which contain lines only are determined based on the criteria that (a), the system fails if overload occurs in a line or bus voltage variation is more than ±11% and (b), the system fails if overloading in a line and bus voltage variation more than ±11% occur simultaneously. Finally, a maximum reliable configuration is derived for the said criterion by adding lines step by step in the routes with the highest positive RII value.
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