Abstract
Relevant problem of the reliability of fuel supply to heat sources operating in district heating systems is considered. A methodical approach is proposed for assessing possible shortages of fuel in the fuel supply system, based on the statistical test or the Monte Carlo method using initial statistical data on fuel demand and supply. An algorithm for assessing the reliability of the fuel supply system is developed, accounting various modeling conditions, in particular, the formation of current fuel reserves and the interchangeability of fuels between heat sources. A number of computational experiments have been carried out, and some of the results obtained are presented. Conclusions and directions for further research are formulated.
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