A relationship between weather conditions and a number of forest fires

Abstract

This work presents an approach to identifying the relationship between weather conditions in the region and a number of wild fires. On the basis on the official data, an assessment of meteorological conditions (average monthly air temperature, average monthly relative humidity, total precipitation, average wind speed) was carried out, and the hydrothermal coefficient was calculated for various areas of the Right-Bank and Left-Bank parts of the Saratov region. The obtained values are compared with the number of fires occurring in the selected territories: the study areas and parts of the Saratov region. It is shown that the best values of the correlation coefficients are observed when comparing data on the average relative air humidity and the number of fires. In some cases, a correlation is observed between the amount of precipitation and the average air temperature. Weather conditions are a combination of air temperature and relative humidity. Both of these parameters can be taken into account by calculating the hydrothermal coefficient, and its comparison with the number of fires may give a more accurate picture. Nevertheless, the calculation of the hydrothermal coefficient and the joint analysis of its values with the number of fires showed low values of the correlation coefficients. Nevertheless, if we combine the change in the values of the hydrothermal coefficient on the graph with the change in the number of forest fires, then it becomes clearly visible that there is a temporary shift in the period of occurrence of forest fires relative to the period of low level of moisture in the territory.