A regional scale coseismic landslide analysis framework: Integrating physics-based simulation with flexible sliding analysis

Abstract

This paper describes a framework for regional scale coseismic landslide evaluation that combines physics-based wave propagation simulation at a regional scale, with flexible sliding analysis at a site scale. The physics-based simulation incorporates fault rupture process, complex topography and dynamic site response. The sliding displacements of flexible masses are calculated by integrating seismic parameter k obtained from the physics-based simulation over seismic resistance.The framework is applied to the case study of coseismic landslides during the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan, which has well documented fault mechanism, geologic information and landslide inventory. The performance of the model prediction is evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. This study highlights the near-fault effect and soil nonlinear effect on landslide distribution, and it is demonstrated that the landslide prediction can be notably improved with the consideration of topographic amplification of ground motions. Empirical correlations between topographic amplification of key intensity measures and parameterized topographic features are developed. Overall, the simulation captures 58% of observed landslides in the inventory (using a displacement threshold of 15 cm), showing the proposed framework is a promising tool for regional coseismic landslide analysis.