A Regional Scale Analysis of Economic Convergence in Poland in the Years 2004–2012

Abstract

The article concentrates on the problem of economic convergence in Poland in the years 2004–2012 at the regional level. In the year 2004 Poland accessed the European Union, which was a significant development impulse for the economy. The year 2012 is the last year where the data was available. The major objective of the article is to analyse the convergence process at the regional level in Poland with the application of two spatial regimes that allowed grouping the regions to two homogenous groups: the western area, consisting of the regions with high levels of socio-economic development, and a much weaker economically eastern area. In connection with the proposed objective, club convergence was analysed, where additionally a spatial autoregression of independent process was assumed. For both spatial regimes, the conditional β-convergence was analysed, where the average investment level for regions was taken as an independent variable determining the steady state. Estimation of the parameters of a spatial switching regression model allowed the identification of spatial interrelations of the GDP per capita and its growth rate for the sub-regions in Poland. The study also allowed the identification of differences in the convergence process for the two assumed spatial regimes. In the case of the western sub-region, the convergence process was confirmed, whereas in the case of the eastern one, a lack of convergence process was noted. This means that in Poland there is a phenomenon of economic polarization in the case of the two assumed spatial regimes. Poland’s accession to the EU gave an impulse for a stronger development of western regions with a good socio-economic situation. On the other hand, a much slower development of the eastern area in the years 2004–2012 was observed, which in the long term may contribute to the preservation of low level of economic development of the eastern area. Additionally, there is a tendency to drain the most valuable resources from the eastern to the western area. It means that in the case of lack of more effective regional policy than the one implemented in the analysed period, the eastern sub-region can suffer further economic deterioration, which will contribute to the problem of unsustainable growth in the country.