Abstract
We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat waves. The WRF model was designed at a 5 km horizontal resolution on a 5-month (May-September) seasonal scale, for every year, during the study period with initial/boundary conditions derived from NCEP 2.5 degree reanalysis. The comparison of simulated mean summer seasonal maximums and mean maximums of June, July, and August months with the corresponding E-OBS data sets indicates that the model is able to characterize the spatial variation of magnitudes of temperature change over the Iberian Peninsula. The mean extreme heat wave conditions during the climate period 1950-2009 are well simulated and match the observations well. The regional scale simulations clearly show the propagation of intense heat waves from the south west to north east of Iberia. The WRF-ARW model also simulated well the general trend of increase in heat waves over most parts of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period 1950-2009. The characteristics of the most severe heat waves years 2003 and 2006 are also well simulated by the model.
Highlights
The Iberian Peninsula falls in the transition zone of tropical and extra tropical climates with more than 80% of days of clear sky and sunshine
The first section focuses on 60-year mean values of maximum temperatures for summer season (JJA) and individual months of June, July and August, all of which are computed and analysed for both model and E-OBS
The ARW model is used to simulate the regional heat wave conditions over the Iberian Peninsula related to extreme maximum temperatures over a 60-year climate period
Summary
The Iberian Peninsula falls in the transition zone of tropical and extra tropical climates with more than 80% of days of clear sky and sunshine. Tebaldi et al, [5] reported that maximum summer temperatures in southern and central Europe are likely to increase more than mean temperatures Another reason is the movement of anti cyclonic weather regimes to form heat waves in Europe. The focus of this study is to simulate the extreme temperatures and heat wave conditions over the Iberian Peninsula using the WRF regional model [29] and evaluate it through hindcasting using available 20th century climate data. We chose this model because of its sophisticated physics for land-surface, planetary boundary layer, radiation and other atmospheric processes that are important to simulate regional and small-scale atmospheric processes affecting climate. The temperature patterns over the Iberian Peninsula, their long-term variability and the subregional variations, are simulated with a nested regional model at 5 km resolution along a 60-year period (19502009) for the summer seasons
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