Abstract
The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere “statistical shadow of the past”, and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their “narrative of the future” – imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the “shared narratives” produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.
Highlights
Contemporary Europe is facing a new fertility winter
We argue that fertility decisions are not a mere “statistical shadow of the past”, and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility
We argue that economic uncertainty needs to be conceptualized and operationalized taking into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own narrative of the future – namely, imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions
Summary
Contemporary Europe is facing a new fertility winter. In 2010, the already low fertility rates of Southern European countries started to decline again, and in recent years Nordic countries, too, have experienced a dramatic decrease in total fertility (Fig. 1). Following the New Home Economics (Becker 1964, 1993), fertility decision-making is seen as a rational evaluation of the future expected utility of having children, with people calculating the trade-off between paid work and child-bearing Empirical evidence suggests this substitution effect among women (Matysiak and Vignoli 2008, 2013). Extending Easterlin’s line of reasoning to job characteristics other than income, it can be argued that if a generation experienced favorable labor market conditions – e.g. a smooth and predictable school-to-work transition and stable and full-life employment – these conditions will represent the minimum acceptable standard for the children of that generation, notwithstanding increasing structural economic uncertainty. This project combines, in the Italian version, information on fertility plans in the immediate future and questions about both economic stability and resilience perception in the year (Aassve et al 2018)
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