A Refined Analysis Method for Flight Safety Based on a Multi-stage Reliability Model

Abstract

Flight verification is an indispensable key step in the process of aircraft development. Due to the inevitable existence of protected targets in and around the flight area, the accidental crash of aircraft during flight will pose a threat to the protected targets, so it is necessary to carry out a quantitative analysis of flight safety risks. To meet the requirements of flight safety risk quantitative analysis and improve the refinement degree of risk quantification, this paper proposes a flight safety refinement analysis method based on a multi-stage reliability model. Firstly, the failure modes of the aircraft flight process are summarized, and then the stage distribution logic analysis method and quantitative calculation method of failure modes are proposed. Finally, the target threat probability calculation model is given, which realizes the quantitative evaluation of the safety risk of the flight area and provides support for the optimization design of the flight safety control area.