A recursive inference method based on invertible neural network for multi-level model updating using video monitoring data

Abstract

Likelihood-free inference methods have been widely adopted, but they face significant challenges in updating multi-level computational models that have hierarchically embedded sub-models. This difficulty arises from the lack of direct observations of the quantities of interest of the sub-models. In addition, recent advancements in sensing and image processing technologies allow for the collection of a substantial amount of video monitoring data through non-contact sensing techniques. The implicit and very complicated relationship between the uncertain model parameters and video monitoring data adds an additional layer of challenge to the updating of multi-level models. This paper overcomes these challenges by proposing an innovative Recursive Inference method based on Invertible Neural Networks (RINN) for multi-level models. The proposed RINN framework first compresses the high-dimensional video monitoring data into low-dimension latent-space data using a convolutional autoencoder. Using synthetic video monitoring data generated by considering various uncertainty sources in the computational simulation models, a likelihood-free inference model is then trained through a conditional invertible neural network (cINN) and a summary neural network. This model efficiently approximates the posterior distributions of uncertain model parameters without evaluating the computationally intractable likelihood function, given any latent-space data obtained from the autoencoder. To facilitate continuous monitoring and model updating over an extended monitoring period, this paper further proposes a recursive model updating strategy that integrates the cINN-based likelihood-free inference with the particle filtering method. The updating of a degradation model of a miter gate application is employed as an example throughout this paper to explain and demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed RINN framework. The results of the case study show that the RINN is able to effectively reduce uncertainty in the degradation model parameters through strain video monitoring data of a miter gate, and thereby increase the confidence in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimation using the updated degradation model.