A Reassessment of the Fertility Rate-Poverty Rate Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

This research aimed to uncover the connection between two variables specifically within Nigeria. Using data from 1980 to 2016 and a modified Solow model, researchers identified a clear positive relationship between high fertility rates and poverty levels in the country. The study indicates that the causality primarily stems from fertility rates leading to poverty, emphasizing the necessity for interventions to address these challenges. The absence of social safety nets and support programs in Nigeria contributes to larger family sizes, resulting in inadequate healthcare, limited educational opportunities, and restricted economic prospects. These results highlight the critical need to revisit and strengthen the National Population Policy to effectively tackle these issues, emphasizing the essential role of government leadership in driving these much-needed reforms. The correlation between the main variables was established using the SVAR and innovation accounting method. The findings reveal a significant and strong positive correlation between poverty and fertility rate, with this correlation surpassing that of other variables examined. The study suggests that this may be attributed to the lack of social safety nets and family support programs in Nigeria, leading to the consequences of larger family sizes, including inadequate healthcare, limited access to education, lack of economic opportunities, and restricted social mobility. Based on these empirical findings, an immediate reassessment and revitalization of the National Population Policy (NPP) are warranted, with strong leadership from the Federal Government required from both the Executive and the National Assembly.