A Real Time Storm Surge Forecasting System Using ADCIRC

Abstract

An automated storm surge forecasting system was created around ADCIRC to predict the storm surge from tropical cyclones in real time as a storm approaches. This system was then applied to Lake Pontchartrain in Southern Louisiana as a case study in order to assist the US Army Corps of Engineers with planning decisions that must be made as storms approach and make landfall. Surge forecasts are generated following each tropical storm advisory update issued by the National Hurricane Center. The general procedure is to create an ensemble of five ADCIRC storm surge runs based on the consensus storm forecast from the National Hurricane Center and perturbations to this forecast. Winds and pressure fields are generated using a parametric wind model (based on the Holland wind model) that has been coded as an ADCIRC subroutine to maximize execution speed. Initial outputs are water level and wind speed time series plots along the southern shore of Lake Pontchartrain near critical infrastructure. Results will be presented based on the forecasts for historical storms, as well as a summary of the system’s performance on the case study site during the 2007 hurricane season.